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A Promotion can be in one of the following states: Valid, Invalid, Disabled, or Changed BluePrint Hierarchy (please look at the Promotion states in the Documentation). If a folder or a file is deleted, Promotion will be marked as Invalid.
Currently there is no mark whether a referenced component is published or not. We will eventually revisit the Experience Optimization user interface sometime after Sites 9.5. In the meantime, we’d be interested to hear more from you and others about this use case.